Sharpe, Simon; Lenton, Timothy; (2020) Upward-scaling tipping cascades to meet climate goals: Plausible grounds for hope. (Working Paper Series: IIPP WP 2020-07). UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose: London, UK.

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Abstract

Limiting global warming to well below 2°C requires a dramatic acceleration of decarbonisation to reduce net anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to zero by mid-century. In complex systems – including human societies – tipping points can occur, in which a small perturbation transforms a system. Crucially, activating one tipping point can increase the likelihood of triggering another at a larger scale, and so on. Here we show how such upward-scaling tipping cascades could accelerate progress in tackling climate change. We focus on two sectors – light road transport and power – where tipping points have already been triggered by policy interventions at individual nation scales. We show how positive-sum cooperation, between small coalitions of jurisdictions and their policymakers, could lead to global changes in the economy and emissions.

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