Abu Bakar, Dayang Ratnasari;
(2024)
The Malaysian energy system decarbonisation pathways to 2050 and the role of bioenergy.
Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).
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Abstract
Scenario analyses of the Malaysian energy system to 2050 were characterised using the Malaysia-TIMES model (MY-TIMES) with the Reference case as the understudy for the development path of the system against several alternative scenarios. The results show that moderate decarbonisation can be achieved (throughout 2020 to 2050) by cutting nearly half (45% to 47%) of the annual energy-related GHG emissions and between 36% to 42% of the cumulative emissions (or 4,866.5 to 5,677.6 Mt CO2 eq.). The power sector is the key sector leading to decarbonisation (emission intensity can be reduced from 772 to 491 kt CO2/MWh in 2050), contributing 58% to 78% of the total emissions reduction. Other contributions include the industrial sector (13% to 27%), residential sector (8% to 15%) and transport sector (1 to 12%). Decarbonisation, however, leads to trade-offs (e.g., reduced energy security and higher electricity generation costs). The marginal abatement costs of CO2 were from USD2 to USD16 per tonne. Incorporating low or zero-emission technologies is a prerequisite for a more ambitious decarbonisation level. Relative decoupling of GHG emissions and GDP in the past continues to the First NDC period. Malaysia’s NDC can be achieved depending on the performance of the non-energy sectors, with 47% to 78% of the NDC threshold target occupied by the energy sector. A precautionary approach (MY-TIMES-B) shows that great caution should be taken when land conversion is involved in the bioenergy-land use change nexus as it may fall short of meeting specific emission reduction targets. The approach also shows ways to overcome shortcomings in GHG accounting from the energy system modelling perspective, particularly to avoid over/under-estimating the role of bioenergy. Finally, the policy development needed to support the country's NDC and advancing the decarbonisation of the energy system by 2050 was presented based on the study's overall results.
| Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Qualification: | Ph.D |
| Title: | The Malaysian energy system decarbonisation pathways to 2050 and the role of bioenergy |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | Copyright © The Author 2024. Original content in this thesis is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) Licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/). Any third-party copyright material present remains the property of its respective owner(s) and is licensed under its existing terms. Access may initially be restricted at the author’s request. |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10199201 |
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