Mannion, Philip D; (2024) The spatiotemporal distribution of Mesozoic dinosaur diversity. Biology Letters (In press).

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Abstract

Much of our view on Mesozoic dinosaur diversity is obscured by biases in the fossil record. In particular, spatiotemporal sampling heterogeneity affects identification of the timing and geographical location of radiations, the recognition of the latitudinal diversity gradient, as well as interpretation of purported extinctions, faunal turnovers, and their drivers, including the Early Jurassic Jenkyns Event and across the Jurassic/Cretaceous boundary. The current distribution of sampling means it is impossible to robustly determine whether these ‘events’ were globally synchronous and geologically instantaneous, or spatiotemporally staggered. Accounting for sampling heterogeneity is also paramount to reconciling notable differences in results based on sampling-standardised dinosaur species richness versus reconstructions of diversification rates, particularly with regards to the lead-up to the Cretaceous/Paleogene mass extinction. Incorporation of a greater proportion of stratigraphically well-resolved dinosaurs into analyses is also imperative and must include the substantial Mesozoic radiation of birds. Given the relative rarity of temporally successive, well-sampled spatial windows, it remains possible that dinosaur species richness and diversification rate showed little change after the clade’s initial radiation until the Cretaceous/Paleogene boundary. However, better understanding of underlying sampling, combined with a holistic approach to reconstructing dinosaur diversity and diversification, is an important step in testing this hypothesis.

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