Qi, Weiwen; (2024) The Economic Impacts of Pandemic-Induced Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions in the Initial Stage of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Developed and Emerging Markets. Doctoral thesis (Ph.D), UCL (University College London).

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Abstract

Governments worldwide responded to the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic with unconventional non-pharmaceutical interventions. This thesis is comprised of three empirical chapters, investigating the economic impacts of the pandemic and associated government interventions on stock markets (Chapter 2), industry resilience (Chapter 3), and labour market outcomes during the pandemic (Chapter 4), drawing evidence from both developed and emerging markets. Using a macro-level analysis, Chapter 2 examines stock market reactions to pandemic-enforced lockdowns in developed and emerging markets by using a combination of a panel data approach and an event study method. The results suggest that the stock market, in general, has reacted negatively and significantly to increases in the daily stringency of lockdown measures. The dynamic evolution of stock markets indicates adaptive learning processes and updating expectations which are based on information about other countries’ lockdown announcements as useful signals about the severity of the pandemic. This learning process suggests that the stock market reactions to pandemic-enforced interventions are not solely determined by sentiment, as rational decision-making also plays a role. Zooming the focus to a meso (sectoral) level, Chapter 3 examines the role of pre-pandemic digitalisation in mitigating the shocks from lockdown measures on industry resilience in European countries. Panel data and IV-2SLS approaches reveal that industries with higher digitalisation investments have been more resilient to the adverse shocks from lockdown measures during the initial COVID-19 waves, particularly in contact-intensive industries. These findings provide empirical evidence for policymakers to accelerate digitalisation across industries, enhancing resilience to future crises. Using a micro-level analysis, Chapter 4 examines the persistence of the motherhood penalty and the factors moderating its impact on employment outcomes during the early stage of the pandemic. With an intersectional approach, this chapter reveals that Black, Asian, and Minority Ethnic (BAME) migrant mothers, especially in blue-collar roles, experienced disproportionate unemployment risks, reflecting compounding disadvantages in the labour market. Being clinically vulnerable to Coronavirus and the lack of family support in childcare exacerbate job loss probabilities for this group, highlighting gender-based inequalities in the UK labour market.

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