Teutloff, Ole;
Einsiedler, Johanna;
Kässi, Otto;
Braesemann, Fabian;
Mishkin, Pamela;
del Rio-Chanona, R Maria;
(2025)
Winners and losers of generative AI: Early Evidence of Shifts in Freelancer Demand.
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
, Article 106845. 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106845.
(In press).
Preview |
Text
1-s2.0-S0167268124004591-main.pdf - Accepted Version Download (2MB) | Preview |
Abstract
We examine how ChatGPT has changed the demand for freelancers in jobs where generative AI tools can act as substitutes or complements to human labor. Using BERTopic we partition job postings from a leading online freelancing platform into 116 fine-grained skill clusters and with GPT-4o we classify them as substitutable, complementary or unaffected by LLMs. Our analysis reveals that labor demand increased after the launch of ChatGPT, but only in skill clusters that were complementary to or unaffected by the AI tool. In contrast, demand for substitutable skills, such as writing and translation, decreased by 20–50% relative to the counterfactual trend, with the sharpest decline observed for short-term (1-3 week) jobs. Within complementary skill clusters, the results are mixed: demand for machine learning programming grew by 24%, and demand for AI-powered chatbot development nearly tripled, while demand for novice workers declined in general. This result suggests a shift toward more specialized expertise for freelancers rather than uniform growth across all complementary areas.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Winners and losers of generative AI: Early Evidence of Shifts in Freelancer Demand |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106845 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106845 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
| Keywords: | Generative AI technologies, Large language models, Automation and employment, Labor market implications of AI, Technological transition, Online labor markets |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Computer Science |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10204198 |
Archive Staff Only
 |
View Item |
