Wang, Meng;
Zhou, Jingfeng;
Liang, Yujing;
Yu, Hang;
Jing, Rui;
(2025)
Climate change impacts on city-scale building energy performance based on GIS-informed urban building energy modelling.
Sustainable Cities and Society
, 125
, Article 106331. 10.1016/j.scs.2025.106331.
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Abstract
Climate change increasingly affects urban building energy performance, leading to varying energy demand patterns and increased maintenance costs. This study assesses the impact of climate change on city-scale building energy performance by integrating future climatic variations into urban building energy modelling (UBEM). Extensive building information is firstly collected using geographic information system (GIS) technologies. Then, a morphing statistical method is employed to generate future meteorological data considering different Shared Socio‐Economic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios. An automated workflow is further proposed to generate prototype building models, facilitating the bottom-up development of the city-scale UBEM from building-level to city-scale, capturing various building types, geometric features, and construction years. Lastly, the UBEM is validated against measured building energy data. A case study of Fuzhou City, China, encompassing over 75,000 buildings, reveals that climate change is projected to increase the whole city's total electricity demand by up to 3.1 % by 2060, among which commercial buildings are the most affected category, with total electricity demand rising by up to 4.1 %. The whole city's HVAC electricity demand is projected to increase up to 14.9 % with transport buildings experiencing the most significant impact by rising up to 21.2 % by 2060.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Climate change impacts on city-scale building energy performance based on GIS-informed urban building energy modelling |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.scs.2025.106331 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2025.106331 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| Keywords: | City-scale building energy, Climate change impacts, Construction & Building Technology, EFFICIENCY, Energy & Fuels, Future weather, Green & Sustainable Science & Technology, Prototype buildings, RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS, Science & Technology, Science & Technology - Other Topics, STANDARDS, Technology, Urban building energy modelling |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of the Built Environment > Bartlett School Env, Energy and Resources |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10207882 |
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