Picat, MQ; Lewis, J; Musiime, V; Prendergast, A; Nathoo, K; Kekitiinwa, A; Nahirya Ntege, P; ... ARROW Trial Team, The; + view all Picat, MQ; Lewis, J; Musiime, V; Prendergast, A; Nathoo, K; Kekitiinwa, A; Nahirya Ntege, P; Gibb, DM; Thiebaut, R; Walker, AS; Klein, N; Callard, R; ARROW Trial Team, The; - view fewer (2013) Predicting Patterns of Long-Term CD4 Reconstitution in HIV-Infected Children Starting Antiretroviral Therapy in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Cohort-Based Modelling Study. PLoS Med , 10 (10) , Article e1001542. 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001542.

Preview	PDF picat_2013_PlosMed_ARROW_imm_response.pdf Download (881kB)
Preview	Other (TIFF Figure 1. An illustrative representation of the mathematical model used to describe CD4 reconstitution.) journal.pmed.1001542.g001.tif Download (59kB)
Preview	Other (TIFF Figure 2. Modelling CD4-for-age in children showing asymptotic reconstitution) journal.pmed.1001542.g002.tif Download (535kB)
Preview	Other (TIFF Table 1. Characteristics at ART initiation of the two groups of HIV-infected ART-naïve children in the ARROW trial with qualitatively different CD4 reconstitution profiles) journal.pmed.1001542.t001.tif Download (420kB)
Preview	Other (TIFF Table 2. Predictors of CD4-for-age after ART for 914 children with asymptotic CD4 reconstitution.) journal.pmed.1001542.t002.tif Download (470kB)
Preview	Other (TIFF Figure 3. Predicted long-term CD4 counts in children starting ART at different ages and CD4 levels.) journal.pmed.1001542.g003.tif Download (405kB)
Preview	Other (TIFF Figure 4. CD4-for-age in children not showing asymptotic reconstitution.) journal.pmed.1001542.g004.tif Download (436kB)
Preview	Other (TIFF Table 3. Characteristics at ART initiation of four subgroups of HIV-infected ART-naïve children who did not show asymptotic CD4-for-age reconstitution on long-term ART (n = 292)) journal.pmed.1001542.t003.tif Download (438kB)
	MS Word (Table S2 Additional predictors of CD4-for-age profiles in the asymptotic recovery group) Table_S2.doc Download (49kB)
Preview	PDF (Figure S1 Relationship between very low CD4 count and CD4-for-age z-score in children of different ages.) Figure_S1.pdf Download (46kB)
	MS Word (Table S1 Univariate comparisons between individual non-asymptotic response subgroups and the large (n = 914) group of asymptotic responders) Table_S1.doc Download (51kB)

Abstract

Long-term immune reconstitution on antiretroviral therapy (ART) has important implications for HIV-infected children, who increasingly survive into adulthood. Children's response to ART differs from adults', and better descriptive and predictive models of reconstitution are needed to guide policy and direct research. We present statistical models characterising, qualitatively and quantitatively, patterns of long-term CD4 recovery.

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