Gale, EL; Saunders, MA; (2013) The 2011 Thailand flood: climate causes and return periods. WEATHER , 68 (9) 233 - 237. 10.1002/wea.2133.

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Abstract

Thailand is one of the wealthiest and most developed countries in southeast Asia. However, its tropical location and the influence of seasonal monsoon rains and local topography make it prone to floods. The floods in 2011 were especially severe, causing estimated losses of US $30 billion (economic; Swiss Re, 2012) and US $12 billion (insured; Swiss Re, 2012). The insured loss ranks easily as the highest-ever worldwide from a freshwater flood disaster (Swiss Re, 2012). The primary reason for the floods was record rainfall: over Thailand as a whole, annual rainfall in 2011 was the highest in the country’s 61-year precipitation record (Thai Meteoro logical Department, 2011). In this article we first review the nature, impacts and historical ranking of the 2011 Thailand floods. We then examine the 2011 rainfall totals and anomalies across Thailand and use these with other data to discuss the climate causes for the exceptional rainfall. We then estimate the rainfall return period for this flooding event and compare this with satellite-derived return periods for the 2011 river flow. Finally, we bring together the different estimated return periods to provide a firmer assessment of how likely it is that a flood of the magnitude of 2011 will happen again.

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