Dunn, S.; Holmes, M.; Wilkinson, S.; (2015) Modelling Interdependent Cascading Failures in Real World Complex Networks using a Functional Dependency Model. In: Dolan, T. and Collins, B., (eds.) International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure Conference Proceedings: 30 September - 1 October 2014 International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),Schloss Laxenburg, Vienna, Austria. (pp. pp. 21-26). UCL STEaPP: London, UK.

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Abstract

Infrastructure systems are becoming increasingly complex and interdependent. As a result our ability to predict the likelihood of large-scale failure of these systems has significantly diminished and the consequence of this is that we now have a greatly increased risk of devastating impacts to society. Traditionally these systems have been analysed using physically-based models. However, this approach can only provide information for a specific network and is limited by the number of scenarios that can be tested. In an attempt to overcome this shortcoming, many studies have used network graph theory to provide an alternative analysis approach. This approach has tended to consider infrastructure systems in isolation, but has recently considered the analysis of interdependent networks through combination with percolation theory. However, these studies have focused on the analysis of synthetic networks and tend to only consider the topology of the system. In this paper we develop a new analysis approach, based upon network theory, but accounting for the hierarchical structure and functional dependency observed in real world infrastructure networks. We apply this method to two real world networks, to show that it can be used to quantify the impact that failures within an electricity network have upon a dependent water network.

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