Olivero, J;
Fa, JE;
Real, R;
Farfan, MA;
Marquez, AL;
Vargas, JM;
Gonzalez, JP;
... Nasi, R; + view all
(2017)
Mammalian biogeography and the Ebola virus in Africa.
Mammal Review
, 47
(1)
pp. 24-37.
10.1111/mam.12074.
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Abstract
1. Ebola virus is responsible for the fatal Ebola virus disease (EVD). 2. Identifying the distribution area of the Ebola virus is crucial to understand risk factors conditioning the emergence of new EVD cases. Existing distribution models have underrepresented the potential contribution that hosts and vulnerable species make in sustaining the virus presence. 3. In this paper, we map favourable areas for Ebola virus in Africa according to environmental and zoogeographic descriptors, independent of human-to-human transmissions. We combine two different biogeographic approaches: analysis of mammalian distribution types (chorotypes), and distribution modelling of the Ebola virus. 4. We first obtain a model defining the distribution of environmentally favourable areas for the presence of Ebola virus. Based on a review of mammal taxa affected or suspected of exposure to the Ebola virus, we model favourable areas again, this time according to mammalian chorotypes. We then build a combined model in which both the environment and mammalian distributions explain the favourable areas for Ebola virus in the wild. 5. We demonstrate that mammalian biogeography contributes to explain the distribution of Ebola virus in Africa, although vegetation may also underscore clear limits to the presence of the virus. Our model suggests that the Ebola virus distribution may be even more widespread than previously suspected, given that additional favourable areas are found throughout the coastal areas of West and Central Africa, stretching from Cameroon to Guinea, and extend further East into the East African Lakes region. 6. Our findings show that the most favourable area for the Ebola virus is significantly associated with the presence of the virus in animals. Such core areas are surrounded by regions of intermediate favourability in which human infections of unknown source were found. This difference in association between human and animals and the virus may offer further insights on how EVD can spread.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Mammalian biogeography and the Ebola virus in Africa |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1111/mam.12074 |
| Publisher version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/mam.12074 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Olivero, J; Fa, JE; Real, R; Farfan, MA; Marquez, AL; Vargas, JM; Gonzalez, JP; (2016) Mammalian biogeography and the Ebola virus in Africa. Mammal Review, which has been published in final form at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/mam.12074. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving |
| Keywords: | Zoonotic disease, tropical rainforests, Africa, chorotypes, favourability models |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences > Div of Biosciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences > Div of Biosciences > Genetics, Evolution and Environment |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1477570 |
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