Sharp, RE; (2015) Spatiotemporal disaggregation of GB scenarios depicting increased wind capacity and electrified heat demand in dwellings. In: Proceedings of the 38th IAEE International Conference. International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE): Antalya, Turkey.

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Abstract

National Grid’s future energy scenarios present a range of futures where wind capacity and domestic heat pumps increasetovaryingdegrees. BothofthesechangeswillintroduceincreasedvariabilityintotheGBelectricitysystem. In order to understand the implications of this variability it is important to understand the impact that wind speeds and temperature will have on supply and demand. This study therefore presents a method that disaggregates and modelsthesescenariosatanhourlyresolutionina0.5ogridcoveringGBandoffshorewaters. Thegriddedmodelling approach facilitates the use of climate reanalysis data which provides spatiotemporally homogeneous and accurate hindcastedweatherdataoverthe25yearperiodofthescenarios. Methodsforredistributingnongriddedspatialdata and disaggregating non spatial data to the grid are discussed. Theresultsdemonstrate thathigh offshore capacityfactors haveasignificantimpactonthe projected generation ofdifferentwindcapacityscenarios. Analysisofextremeeventsundereachscenario,facilitatedbythedisaggregated approach, demonstrate that there will be periods of up to 50 hours where supply exceeds demand for the most ambitious wind scenarios and all but one scenario will require solutions to store or transfer excess wind generation. High demand events are shown to occur at similar levels in all scenarios.

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