Brierley, CM;
Simpson, M;
Roy, I;
Nankervis, C;
(2016)
Extreme UK rainfall and natural climate variability: combining models and data.
(ECRC Research Report
175
).
UCL Environmental Change Research Centre: London, UK.
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Abstract
The return periods for extreme events are estimated from observational datasets. Often those datasets are relatively short in comparison to timescales of natural climate variability; potentially introducing a systematic bias into the extreme estimates. Here we combine observations with global climate models to show that this bias is statistically insignificant for the case of extreme UK-wide rainfall estimates. This is unlikely to hold for other locations and spatial scales, yet the methodology we have developed provides a simple approach to quantify the bias for other cases.
| Type: | Report |
|---|---|
| Title: | Extreme UK rainfall and natural climate variability: combining models and data |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| Publisher version: | https://www.geog.ucl.ac.uk/research/research-centr... |
| Language: | English |
| Keywords: | Climate, Extreme Weather |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Inst for Risk and Disaster Reduction UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of S&HS > Dept of Geography |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1503519 |
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