Taagepera, R; Sikk, A; (2010) Parsimonious Model for Predicting Mean Cabinet Duration On the Basis of Electoral System. Party Politics: international journal for the study of political parties and political organizations , 16 (2) 261 - 281. 10.1177/1354068809341058.

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Abstract

This study joins two existing logical models and tests the resulting predictions of mean cabinet duration (C). One of these models predicts C based on effective number of parties (N): C = k/N², where k is found to be around 42 years. The other predicts N on the basis of number of seats in the assembly (S) and district magnitude (M). The new combined model leads to a prediction for the mean cabinet duration in terms of these two institutional factors: C = 42 years/(MS)^1/3. Three-quarters of the actual mean durations agree with the prediction within a factor of 2. For the purposes of institutional engineering, the model predicts that doubling the district magnitude would reduce the mean cabinet duration by 21 percent ceteris paribus.

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