Erfani, T;
Pachos, K;
Harou, JJ;
(2020)
Decision-dependent uncertainty in adaptive real-options water resource planning.
Advances in Water Resources
, 136
, Article 103490. 10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.103490.
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Abstract
Staged water infrastructure capacity expansion optimization models help create flexible plans under uncertainty. In these models exogenous uncertainty can be incorporated into the optimization using an a priori hydrological and demand scenario ensemble. However some water supply intervention uncertainties cannot be considered in this way, such as demand management or technological options. In these cases the uncertainty is endogenous or ‘decision-dependent’, i.e., the optimized timing and selection of interventions determines when and which uncertainties must be considered. We formulate a multistage real-options water supply capacity expansion optimization model incorporating such uncertainty and describe its effect on cost and option selection.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Decision-dependent uncertainty in adaptive real-options water resource planning |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.103490 |
| Publisher version: | http://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.103490 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
| Keywords: | Endogenous uncertainty, Adaptive water resources planning |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Civil, Environ and Geomatic Eng |
| URI: | https://discovery-pp.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10091736 |
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